Al Shamal 1-0 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.91
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.94
Over 2.5
66%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.39
No
39%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
11.9
2-3 Goals
38%
2.76
4-5 Goals
35%
2.3
6+ Goals
10%
3.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
46%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
14%
+13.0pp
17%
Draw
16%
+1.2pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-14.1pp
34%
Under 2.5
22%
+12.8pp
66%
Over 2.5
78%
-12.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
68%
-6.6pp
39%
BTTS No
32%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Shamal EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 75%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.71/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.33/1.33
-64% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -37%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
231 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 82%
12.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 41.0
11.6 Crosses 23.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Shamal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 0.87
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 Passes 341
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Shamal Al Shamal KAT
19.11.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Shamal Al Shamal KATYK
20.02.2023 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 3-2 HT 1-2 Al Shamal Al Shamal KAT
26.09.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KATYK
17.08.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 2-1 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
03.01.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 2-3 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Shamal
1-0
AWAY Al Gharafa
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Al Shamal vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shamal nicked a narrow win over Al Gharafa 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Al Gharafa carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Shamal had 37% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 63%, shots finished 13-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Shamal and 1.50 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Shamal vs Al Gharafa?

Al Shamal 1-0 Al Gharafa in the Qatar League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Shamal vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Al Shamal 27%, draw 17%, Al Gharafa 56%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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