CF Os Belenenses 1-3 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Apr 2024

CF Os Belenenses
1-3 HT 0-3
Nacional
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
8%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 29% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CF Os Belenenses v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
-10% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.20/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.52
-17% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.4 Crosses 25.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Os Belenenses
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.00 xG 1.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
352 Passes 300
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Nacional Nacional 5-0 HT 2-0 CF Os Belenenses POR2
26.02.2023 CF Os Belenenses 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
04.09.2022 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 1-1 CF Os Belenenses POR2

CF Os Belenenses 1-3 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Os Belenenses
1-3
AWAY Nacional
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 7
POST-MATCH CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional got the better of CF Os Belenenses 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, CF Os Belenenses had 54% of the ball to Nacional's 46%, shots finished 11-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CF Os Belenenses and 2.33 for Nacional.

What was the final score of CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional?

CF Os Belenenses 1-3 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Os Belenenses vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split CF Os Belenenses 28%, draw 26%, Nacional 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ BTTS No
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