Pendikspor 1-2 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.36
2-3 Goals
43%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 25% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.86
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
12%
4.87
X/2
10%
6.95
X/X
13%
5.0
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
16%
4.71
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pendikspor EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.44/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.54
-9% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.9 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pendikspor
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Kayserispor
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.40 xG 1.88
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 Passes 419
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
10.12.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Pendikspor Pendikspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pendikspor
1-2
AWAY Kayserispor
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
422 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Pendikspor vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor nicked a narrow win over Pendikspor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pendikspor at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pendikspor had 61% of the ball to Kayserispor's 39%, shots finished 20-10.

What was the final score of Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

Pendikspor 1-2 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pendikspor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pendikspor 42%, draw 26%, Kayserispor 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Pendikspor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pendikspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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