Septemvri Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.2pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 46%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.17/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.96
-84% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
221 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
26.08.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-3 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
07.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
2-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia saw off Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 45% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 55%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.67 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Septemvri Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 32%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 42%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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