Arema Malang 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arema Malang EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 40%
-25% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
0.72/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.06
-45% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arema Malang
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
234 Passes 285
07.12.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 HT 2-1 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
27.03.2024 Arema Malang Arema Malang 0-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
01.10.2022 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-3 HT 2-2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.02.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
06.11.2021 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-2 HT 2-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
12.12.2019 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 4-1 HT 2-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
POST-MATCH Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arema Malang and Persebaya Surabaya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arema Malang and 2.33 for Persebaya Surabaya.

What was the final score of Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Arema Malang 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya in the Indonesia League 1 on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arema Malang 33%, draw 29%, Persebaya Surabaya 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ BTTS Yes
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