UCV 1-3 Caracas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.7pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.3pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCV EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caracas FC EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.28/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.91
-4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.1 Crosses 16.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCV
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Caracas FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
334 Passes 221
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2024 UCV UCV 1-3 HT 1-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
15.04.2024 Caracas FC Caracas FC 2-2 HT 2-2 UCV UCV VEN
17.09.2023 Caracas FC Caracas FC 0-0 HT 0-0 UCV UCV VEN
26.02.2023 UCV UCV 0-2 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
19.06.2022 UCV UCV 1-0 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
29.05.2022 Caracas FC Caracas FC 1-2 HT 0-2 UCV UCV VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCV
1-3
AWAY Caracas FC
0.73 xG 3.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 12
0 Corners 5
246 Passes 345
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH UCV vs Caracas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caracas FC saw off UCV 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was UCV at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UCV had 43% of the ball to Caracas FC's 57%, shots finished 12-24, expected goals 0.73 to 3.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UCV and 1.33 for Caracas FC.

What was the final score of UCV vs Caracas FC?

UCV 1-3 Caracas FC in the Venezuela - Premier League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCV vs Caracas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCV win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split UCV 42%, draw 32%, Caracas FC 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (UCV) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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