Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 28 Jun 2024

📅28/06/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 37%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +23%
1.24/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/1.25
-12% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / +13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 3-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
21.10.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
22.07.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
02.04.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
01.10.2022 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0-1
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev edged past Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Parnu JK Vaprus at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 54% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 46%, shots finished 18-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tallinna Kalev led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.67 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 42%, draw 28%, Tallinna Kalev 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Under 2.5
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