Avondale Heights 1-1 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
30%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-14.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
30%
Away Win
18%
+12.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
0.67/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.56
+25% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.8 Crosses 19.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avondale Heights
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 0.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
263 Passes 240
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.03.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-1 HT 1-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
20.07.2024 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 2-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
20.04.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-8 HT 0-2 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
08.07.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 5-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
08.04.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-3 HT 0-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
02.07.2022 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-1 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Avondale Heights vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights and Dandenong Thunder couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Avondale Heights at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avondale Heights had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Avondale Heights and 1.00 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of Avondale Heights vs Dandenong Thunder?

Avondale Heights 1-1 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avondale Heights vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Avondale Heights 46%, draw 24%, Dandenong Thunder 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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