Kopenhag 3-2 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
16%
4.01
X/2
8%
8.92
X/X
10%
5.53
2/1 EV+ ✓
13%
21.85
2/2
13%
6.66
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kopenhag EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.74/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.39
-9% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
20.4 Crosses 19.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kopenhag
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.85 xG 1.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
514 Passes 307
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.05.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-2 HT 3-1 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
28.04.2024 Kopenhag Kopenhag 3-2 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.12.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 1-2 HT 0-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
08.10.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
21.05.2023 Kopenhag Kopenhag 4-3 HT 2-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
23.04.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Kopenhag Kopenhag DAN
POST-MATCH Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kopenhag squeezed past AGF Aarhus 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kopenhag as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kopenhag and 1.83 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Kopenhag 3-2 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kopenhag vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kopenhag win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kopenhag 51%, draw 23%, AGF Aarhus 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kopenhag), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kopenhag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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