Once Caldas 2-0 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.7pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +14%
1.20/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.15
-7% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
269 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
17.1 Crosses 14.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.74 xG 1.01
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 362
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
17.07.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.01.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.10.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.05.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
24.04.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-0
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.68 xG 0.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
213 Passes 310
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas beat Atletico Nacional 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and on the day Once Caldas made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 43% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 57%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.68 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Once Caldas and 0.83 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Once Caldas 2-0 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 35%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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