Fransa (K) 1-2 Kanada (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 28 Jul 2024

Fransa (K)
1-2 HT 1-0
Kanada (K)
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Olympics – 2024

Fransa (K) vs Kanada (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
7%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.15
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
14%
14.9
X/1
23%
3.97
X/2
9%
9.52
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
4%
22.3
2/2
14%
7.19
2/X
7%
15.55
Value flag · 1/X at 14.9 — our 14% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
56%
-12.9pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fransa (K) v Kanada (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa (K) EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kanada (K) EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Fransa (K) vs Kanada (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fransa (K)
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Kanada (K)
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
45% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
363 Passes 405
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
09.04.2018 Fransa (K) Fransa (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Kanada (K) Kanada (K) HAZ
13.08.2016 Kanada (K) Kanada (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Fransa (K) Fransa (K) OLİ
09.04.2015 Fransa (K) Fransa (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Kanada (K) Kanada (K) HAZ
09.08.2012 Kanada (K) Kanada (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Fransa (K) Fransa (K) OLİ
30.06.2011 Kanada (K) Kanada (K) 0-4 HT 0-1 Fransa (K) Fransa (K) KDK

Fransa (K) 1-2 Kanada (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa (K)
1-2
AWAY Kanada (K)
1.58 xG 1.77
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 0
485 Passes 228
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fransa (K) vs Kanada (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kanada (K) edged past Fransa (K) 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fransa (K) at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Fransa (K) had 64% of the ball to Kanada (K)'s 36%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.58 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fransa (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Fransa (K) and 0.40 for Kanada (K).

What was the final score of Fransa (K) vs Kanada (K)?

Fransa (K) 1-2 Kanada (K) in the Olympics on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa (K) vs Kanada (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fransa (K) 43%, draw 31%, Kanada (K) 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fransa (K)), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fransa (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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