Danubio 2-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 43%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
0.90/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.11
-26% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
213 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Danubio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-2 HT 1-1 Danubio Danubio URU
26.08.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
12.02.2023 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.09.2022 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
26.02.2022 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
07.03.2021 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
2-0
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Danubio vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio beat Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day Danubio made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Danubio had 45% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 55%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Danubio and 0.83 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of Danubio vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Danubio 2-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Danubio 34%, draw 29%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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