Alianza Lima 1-1 Alianza Atletico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 28 Jul 2025

📅28/07/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.44
No
57%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.4pp
57%
BTTS No
63%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 15%
+8% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.76/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.59
-2% / +96% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 71%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.5
20.6 Crosses 11.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Alianza Atletico
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 0.65
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
300 Passes 204
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
21.07.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
04.02.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-2 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
27.08.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
09.04.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
27.07.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-1
AWAY Alianza Atletico
0.73 xG 1.32
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
370 Passes 172
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima and Alianza Atletico couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Alianza Lima carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 65% of the ball to Alianza Atletico's 35%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 0.73 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.50 for Alianza Atletico.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico?

Alianza Lima 1-1 Alianza Atletico in the Peru - Premier League on 28/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 58%, draw 25%, Alianza Atletico 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →