Alianza Atletico 3-1 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
19%
+2.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.0pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-6.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.1pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
0.96/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.50
+7% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +80%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
233 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
14.5 Crosses 19.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Atletico
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.62 xG 1.40
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
210 Passes 310
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.07.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
04.02.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-2 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
27.08.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
09.04.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
27.07.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
27.02.2022 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 4-2 HT 2-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Atletico
3-1
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.29 xG 1.77
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
158 Passes 343
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Atletico beat Alianza Lima 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Lima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Atletico had 37% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 63%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.29 to 1.77 — on chances, Alianza Lima could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.50 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima?

Alianza Atletico 3-1 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Alianza Atletico 22%, draw 31%, Alianza Lima 47%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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