Cusco FC 0-1 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.26/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.00
+28% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
19.4 Crosses 16.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cusco FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melgar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.15 xG 2.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
222 Passes 368
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Cusco FC Cusco FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
27.01.2024 Melgar Melgar 2-3 HT 1-2 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
19.08.2023 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
01.04.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
04.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 2-2 HT 1-2 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
22.02.2020 Cusco FC Cusco FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cusco FC
0-1
AWAY Melgar
0.61 xG 1.02
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
519 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
9 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cusco FC vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar nicked a narrow win over Cusco FC 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cusco FC had 64% of the ball to Melgar's 36%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.61 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cusco FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cusco FC and 1.67 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Cusco FC vs Melgar?

Cusco FC 0-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cusco FC vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cusco FC 34%, draw 23%, Melgar 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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