ADT 4-3 Atletico Grau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.31/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.54
-17% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
25.4 Crosses 16.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Grau
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.61 xG 1.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
180 Passes 268
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 ADT ADT 1-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
25.02.2024 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 2-2 HT 0-2 ADT ADT PER
23.07.2023 ADT ADT 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
19.02.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-1 HT 1-1 ADT ADT PER
04.09.2022 ADT ADT 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
16.04.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 4-1 HT 3-0 ADT ADT PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
4-3
AWAY Atletico Grau
3.34 xG 2.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
222 Passes 242
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ADT vs Atletico Grau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT squeezed past Atletico Grau 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had ADT as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, ADT had 48% of the ball to Atletico Grau's 52%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 3.34 to 2.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold ADT's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Grau led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for ADT and 1.67 for Atletico Grau.

What was the final score of ADT vs Atletico Grau?

ADT 4-3 Atletico Grau in the Peru - Premier League on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Atletico Grau?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split ADT 49%, draw 27%, Atletico Grau 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADT) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ADT) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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