28/09/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-1
Dalian Zhixing vs Jiangxi Beidamen Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.52
— our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Dalian Zhixing win — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
BTTS Yes
Over 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
21%
Draw
18%
25%
Away Win
11%
48%
Under 2.5
48%
52%
Over 2.5
52%
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
48%
BTTS No
58%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Dalian Zhixing v Jiangxi Beidamen — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Dalian Zhixing
EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY
Jiangxi Beidamen
EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% /
-4%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+9% /
+2%
1.18/0.86
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.72/1.40
-17%
/
-28%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+8%
/
+10%
56%
Ball Possession
44%
14
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
2
5
Corners
3
349 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
284 · 77%
23.5
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.2
21.4
Crosses
12.8
1.9
Yellow Cards
1.8
Dalian Zhixing vs Jiangxi Beidamen Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Dalian Zhixing
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Jiangxi Beidamen
3.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
3.36
xG
0.38
45%
Ball Possession
55%
13
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Target
3
3
Corners
5
229
Passes
289
74%
Pass Accuracy
76%
20
Box Touches
9
8
Crosses
16
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
11.05.2024
Jiangxi Beidamen
0-3
HT 0-1
Dalian Zhixing
ÇİN2
0-3
HT 0-1
Dalian Zhixing
ÇİN2
POST-MATCH
Dalian Zhixing vs Jiangxi Beidamen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Dalian Zhixing swept aside Jiangxi Beidamen 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dalian Zhixing as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
What was the final score of Dalian Zhixing vs Jiangxi Beidamen?
Dalian Zhixing 3-0 Jiangxi Beidamen in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Dalian Zhixing vs Jiangxi Beidamen?
Before kick-off our model rated a Dalian Zhixing win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dalian Zhixing 55%, draw 21%, Jiangxi Beidamen 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dalian Zhixing), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Dalian Zhixing)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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ÇİN2
More China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division
28 Sep 2024