Chacarita Juniors 1-0 Patronato — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chacarita Juniors EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Patronato EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -20%
1.45/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.10
+27% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chacarita Juniors
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Patronato
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
346 Passes 248
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Patronato Patronato 2-0 HT 1-0 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors ARJPBN
20.02.2018 Patronato Patronato 3-0 HT 1-0 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors ARJ
12.10.2015 Patronato Patronato 6-2 HT 2-1 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors ARJPBN
30.05.2015 Chacarita Juniors Chacarita Juniors 1-1 HT 0-0 Patronato Patronato ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chacarita Juniors edged past Patronato 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Chacarita Juniors found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Patronato led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Chacarita Juniors and 3.00 for Patronato.

What was the final score of Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?

Chacarita Juniors 1-0 Patronato in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chacarita Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chacarita Juniors 40%, draw 30%, Patronato 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chacarita Juniors), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chacarita Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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