Blau-Weiss Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.98
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.3
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
12%
7.69
X/2
13%
4.68
X/X
9%
4.98
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.63
2/X
10%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 50%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.40/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.26
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
308 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
15.5 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.11 xG 1.42
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
286 Passes 404
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz HAZ
03.12.2023 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
26.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-1 HT 2-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz AVU
12.01.2018 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-0 Blau-Weiss Linz Blau-Weiss Linz HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blau-Weiss Linz
1-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.06 xG 1.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
220 Passes 289
63% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Blau-Weiss Linz 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Blau-Weiss Linz had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 2.06 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Blau-Weiss Linz and 1.75 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Blau-Weiss Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blau-Weiss Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Blau-Weiss Linz 31%, draw 27%, Sturm Graz 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ BTTS Yes
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