Smorgon 0-3 Vitebsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
35%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.73
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.4pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.1pp
35%
Away Win
45%
-10.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.0pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 49%
+19% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.65
+10% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitebsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2024 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
16.10.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
28.05.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 5-0 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
0-3
AWAY Vitebsk
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Vitebsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk swept aside Smorgon 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 33% / 35%) promised a tight game; Vitebsk found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Smorgon had 62% of the ball to Vitebsk's 38%, shots finished 8-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Smorgon had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smorgon and 1.67 for Vitebsk.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Vitebsk?

Smorgon 0-3 Vitebsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Vitebsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 32%, draw 33%, Vitebsk 35%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitebsk), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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