Imbabura 1-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.8pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Imbabura EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.75/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.01
+60% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
313 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
16.0 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Imbabura
3W-0D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
0.76 xG 0.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
198 Passes 193
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Imbabura Imbabura EKV1
27.10.2022 Imbabura Imbabura 3-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
14.09.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 5-0 HT 1-0 Imbabura Imbabura EKV2
23.07.2022 Imbabura Imbabura 2-1 HT 2-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV2
03.05.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 2-4 HT 2-2 Imbabura Imbabura EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Imbabura
1-0
AWAY El Nacional
0.74 xG 0.35
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
297 Passes 170
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Imbabura vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Imbabura nicked a narrow win over El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Imbabura as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Imbabura had 61% of the ball to El Nacional's 39%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.74 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Imbabura had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Imbabura and 2.40 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Imbabura vs El Nacional?

Imbabura 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Imbabura vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Imbabura win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Imbabura 41%, draw 26%, El Nacional 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Imbabura), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Imbabura) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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