Orense 1-0 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.30/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.14
-36% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
21.4 Crosses 15.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Macara
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.08 xG 1.43
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
243 Passes 263
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 4
13.04.2024 Macara Macara 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
16.07.2022 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 Macara Macara EKV1
01.03.2022 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
02.10.2021 Orense Orense 2-1 HT 1-1 Macara Macara EKV1
17.04.2021 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
15.11.2020 Macara Macara 0-1 HT 0-1 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
1-0
AWAY Macara
0.62 xG 0.53
72% Ball Possession 28%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
396 Passes 112
83% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 4
24 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orense vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense squeezed past Macara 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orense had 72% of the ball to Macara's 28%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.62 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Orense and 0.67 for Macara.

What was the final score of Orense vs Macara?

Orense 1-0 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Orense 47%, draw 27%, Macara 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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