Independiente Del Valle 5-2 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 28 Sep 2024

Independiente Del Valle
5-2 HT 2-2
Uni. Catolica
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Independiente Del Valle vs Uni. Catolica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Uni. Catolica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.38/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.20
+14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.6 Crosses 15.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Independiente Del Valle vs Uni. Catolica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.64 xG 1.42
61% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
426 Passes 258
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Uni. Catolica 2-2 HT 2-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
26.08.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-1 HT 0-0 Uni. Catolica EKV1
01.04.2023 Uni. Catolica 2-3 HT 2-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
29.08.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
17.04.2022 Uni. Catolica 3-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
14.09.2021 Uni. Catolica 1-3 HT 1-3 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Independiente Del Valle 5-2 Uni. Catolica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
5-2
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.81 xG 1.26
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 193
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle ran out comfortable winners over Uni. Catolica 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 61% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 39%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.81 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.83 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Uni. Catolica?

Independiente Del Valle 5-2 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 44%, draw 27%, Uni. Catolica 29%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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