Mes Soongoun 3-3 Ario Eslamshahr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.45
Over 2.5
38%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
43%
2.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
13%
6.06
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.1 — our 43% vs market 40.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
24%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.2pp
23%
Away Win
28%
-5.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-3.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+3.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.4pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mes Soongoun EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ario Eslamshahr EU Bookmakers 32%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.35/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.19
+20% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mes Soongoun
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ario Eslamshahr
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
09.04.2024 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr 0-1 HT 0-0 Mes Soongoun Mes Soongoun IRANAZ
27.10.2023 Mes Soongoun Mes Soongoun 1-1 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Mes Soongoun vs Ario Eslamshahr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mes Soongoun and Ario Eslamshahr shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mes Soongoun at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mes Soongoun had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mes Soongoun and 0.50 for Ario Eslamshahr.

What was the final score of Mes Soongoun vs Ario Eslamshahr?

Mes Soongoun 3-3 Ario Eslamshahr in the Iran - Azadegan League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mes Soongoun vs Ario Eslamshahr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mes Soongoun win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mes Soongoun 43%, draw 34%, Ario Eslamshahr 23%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mes Soongoun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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