Forge 2-0 York United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

Forge
2-0 HT 0-0
York United
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Forge vs York United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
12%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-13.8pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.5pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Forge v York United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY York United EU Bookmakers 21%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.34/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.26
+34% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +25%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
17.2 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Forge vs York United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
3W-2D-1L
AWAY York United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.66 xG 0.65
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
422 Passes 357
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.08.2024 York United York United 0-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge KAPL
01.06.2024 Forge Forge 3-0 HT 2-0 York United York United CAPL
21.04.2024 York United York United 0-3 HT 0-1 Forge Forge CAPL
13.08.2023 Forge Forge 3-3 HT 1-0 York United York United CAPL
10.07.2023 York United York United 0-4 HT 0-2 Forge Forge KAPL
01.06.2023 Forge Forge 1-2 HT 0-0 York United York United KAPL

Forge 2-0 York United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
2-0
AWAY York United
1.62 xG 0.61
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 4
383 Passes 400
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Forge vs York United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge got the better of York United 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Forge as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Forge had 48% of the ball to York United's 52%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.62 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Forge and 0.83 for York United.

What was the final score of Forge vs York United?

Forge 2-0 York United in the Kanada - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs York United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Forge 47%, draw 27%, York United 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forge), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Forge) ✓ Under 2.5
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