Debrecen 2-3 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 28% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.7pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Debrecen EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.83/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.49
+11% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
24.3 Crosses 13.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Debrecen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY MTK Budapest
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.18 xG 1.23
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
534 Passes 201
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
09.12.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
27.08.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-3 HT 1-2 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
15.05.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 3-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
27.02.2022 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
30.10.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Debrecen
2-3
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.08 xG 1.55
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
295 Passes 394
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Debrecen vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest nicked a narrow win over Debrecen 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Debrecen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Debrecen had 44% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 56%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.08 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Debrecen and 1.83 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Debrecen vs MTK Budapest?

Debrecen 2-3 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Debrecen vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Debrecen 46%, draw 26%, MTK Budapest 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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