CA La Paz 0-1 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
36%
+8.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.7pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 40%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -21%
1.61/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.61
+28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0 Corners 6
10.01.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
11.09.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
20.01.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-3 HT 2-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
18.09.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 4-2 HT 2-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia squeezed past CA La Paz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was CA La Paz at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CA La Paz and 2.50 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Monarcas Morelia?

CA La Paz 0-1 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 44%, draw 24%, Monarcas Morelia 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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