Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Dorados De Sinaloa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒04:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.75
No
42%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.6pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorados De Sinaloa EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
2.38/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.23
+40% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Dorados De Sinaloa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0 Corners 8
12.01.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 2-0 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa MEK2
10.09.2023 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa 1-2 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
02.03.2023 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
27.06.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 0-0 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa MEK2
17.02.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 0-0 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa MEK2
05.12.2021 Dorados De Sinaloa Dorados De Sinaloa 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Dorados De Sinaloa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos and Dorados De Sinaloa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.67 for Dorados De Sinaloa.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Dorados De Sinaloa?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Dorados De Sinaloa in the Mexico - Primera A on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Dorados De Sinaloa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 51%, draw 27%, Dorados De Sinaloa 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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