28/09/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
3-1
Trygg/Lade vs Verdal Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
36%
4-5
31%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
Over 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
70%
23%
Draw
16%
22%
Away Win
14%
42%
Under 2.5
24%
58%
Over 2.5
76%
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
48%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Trygg/Lade v Verdal — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Trygg/Lade
EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY
Verdal
EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% /
-8%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+10% /
+10%
2.74/1.17
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.33/1.77
-13%
/
-5%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+1%
/
+44%
59%
Ball Possession
41%
17
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
3
8
Corners
4
491 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
256 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
1.6
Trygg/Lade vs Verdal Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Trygg/Lade
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Verdal
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
50%
Ball Possession
50%
8
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
3
8
Corners
7
2
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Trygg/Lade vs Verdal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Trygg/Lade squeezed past Verdal 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Trygg/Lade as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
What was the final score of Trygg/Lade vs Verdal?
Trygg/Lade 2-1 Verdal in the Norway - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Trygg/Lade vs Verdal?
Before kick-off our model rated a Trygg/Lade win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Trygg/Lade 55%, draw 23%, Verdal 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trygg/Lade), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Trygg/Lade)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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NOR4
More Norway - 3rd Division
28 Sep 2024