Molde 5-3 Tromsö — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Sep 2024

Molde
5-3 HT 2-0
Tromsö
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Molde vs Tromsö Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.89
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
15%
3.85
X/2
8%
11.75
X/X
11%
6.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.2
2/2
13%
8.7
2/X
7%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.1pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Molde v Tromsö — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Tromsö EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +19%
2.19/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.60
+35% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
434 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.5 Crosses 13.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Molde vs Tromsö Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tromsö
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.07 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
486 Passes 404
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.06.2024 Tromsö Tromsö 0-2 HT 0-1 Molde Molde NOR
30.10.2023 Molde Molde 1-4 HT 0-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
10.04.2023 Tromsö Tromsö 1-0 HT 0-0 Molde Molde NOR
01.10.2022 Tromsö Tromsö 0-1 HT 0-1 Molde Molde NOR
10.07.2022 Molde Molde 5-1 HT 3-1 Tromsö Tromsö NOR
16.10.2021 Molde Molde 3-0 HT 1-0 Tromsö Tromsö NOR

Molde 5-3 Tromsö — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
5-3
AWAY Tromsö
4.84 xG 1.57
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 0
505 Passes 421
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
44 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 5
POST-MATCH Molde vs Tromsö
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde saw off Tromsö 5-3. Half-time: 2-0. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Molde had 55% of the ball to Tromsö's 45%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 4.84 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Molde had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Molde and 1.00 for Tromsö.

What was the final score of Molde vs Tromsö?

Molde 5-3 Tromsö in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Tromsö?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Molde 51%, draw 23%, Tromsö 26%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5
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