Sarpsborg 08 0-1 Fredrikstad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
13%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.16
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
10%
5.21
X/2
12%
6.29
X/X
17%
4.99
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
13%
4.13
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-6.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.0pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.30/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.26
-17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +46%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
20.6 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fredrikstad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 2.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
258 Passes 305
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
7 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 2-2 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
22.05.2019 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 0-2 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
01.03.2019 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-0 HT 2-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
05.05.2016 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-3 HT 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
26.09.2011 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-4 HT 0-2 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
13.06.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
0-1
AWAY Fredrikstad
0.51 xG 0.72
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
388 Passes 102
78% Pass Accuracy 46%
24 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad nicked a narrow win over Sarpsborg 08 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and on the day Fredrikstad made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 69% of the ball to Fredrikstad's 31%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.51 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Fredrikstad.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad?

Sarpsborg 08 0-1 Fredrikstad in the Norway - Eliteserien on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 35%, draw 31%, Fredrikstad 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✗ BTTS Yes
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