Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
3-1 HT 2-1
Spartak Moskova
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.07
Over 2.5
43%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.6
No
55%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.94
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 34% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.44
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
20%
5.51
X/2
15%
5.89
X/X
13%
4.96
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
3.77
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.9pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Spartak Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 38%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.46/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.18
+16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
15.2 Crosses 16.8
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.99 xG 1.35
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
315 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
05.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.02.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
22.02.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
12.11.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
18.09.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 Spartak Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-1
AWAY Spartak Moskova
0.84 xG 1.43
30% Ball Possession 70%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
166 Passes 503
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 22
3 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Spartak Moskova 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiv Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 30% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 70%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.84 to 1.43 — on chances, Spartak Moskova could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 2.00 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 38%, draw 27%, Spartak Moskova 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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