Krasnodar 2-0 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.48
6+ Goals
11%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.6
1/2
10%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
12%
6.04
X/2
11%
4.88
X/X
12%
3.95
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.41
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 43%
+16% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.17/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.97
+20% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
14.3 Crosses 14.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.85 xG 1.52
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 Passes 446
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 4-2 HT 3-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar Rusya - Süper Kupa
13.04.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-2 HT 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
11.11.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
13.05.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
30.10.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
25.04.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-3 HT 0-2 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
2-0
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
2.58 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
354 Passes 307
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar saw off Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Zenit St. Petersburg at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 52% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 48%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.58 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Krasnodar and 2.17 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Krasnodar 2-0 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 33%, draw 26%, Zenit St. Petersburg 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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