Defensa y Justicia 2-1 Boca Juniors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
4.75
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.93
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
10%
14.7
X/1
10%
7.16
X/2
16%
4.55
X/X
11%
3.82
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.95
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+5.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.13/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.14
+9% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
17.1 Crosses 19.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensa y Justicia
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Boca Juniors
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
295 Passes 353
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2025 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4-0 HT 2-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
22.07.2024 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 2-2 HT 2-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
11.02.2024 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
16.09.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 1-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
07.03.2023 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
22.08.2022 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 0-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensa y Justicia
2-1
AWAY Boca Juniors
1.77 xG 1.81
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
254 Passes 518
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia squeezed past Boca Juniors 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Defensa y Justicia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensa y Justicia had 35% of the ball to Boca Juniors's 65%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.77 to 1.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 1.17 for Boca Juniors.

What was the final score of Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors?

Defensa y Justicia 2-1 Boca Juniors in the Argentina - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensa y Justicia vs Boca Juniors?

Before kick-off our model rated an Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Defensa y Justicia 32%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✗ Under 2.5
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