Criciuma 2-4 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.27
No
51%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
4.13
6+ Goals
10%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
17%
2/1
13%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
40%
+9.3pp
51%
BTTS No
60%
-9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.57/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.39
+23% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
19.8 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Paysandu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.35 xG 1.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
260 Passes 267
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.06.2025 Paysandu Paysandu 0-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
06.11.2021 Paysandu Paysandu 0-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRE3
04.10.2021 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
22.09.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
06.06.2018 Criciuma Criciuma 4-1 HT 2-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
28.10.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 1-0 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
2-4
AWAY Paysandu
1.28 xG 2.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
412 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu saw off Criciuma 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Criciuma carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Criciuma had 57% of the ball to Paysandu's 43%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.28 to 2.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Criciuma had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Criciuma and 0.50 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Paysandu?

Criciuma 2-4 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 59%, draw 25%, Paysandu 16%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Criciuma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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