Spartak Varna 1-1 Slavia Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
50%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
26%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
50%
Away Win
47%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Slavia Sofia EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
0.52/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.76
-45% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -49%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Slavia Sofia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-3 HT 0-1 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia BUL1
09.08.2024 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia 3-1 HT 2-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-1
AWAY Slavia Sofia
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna and Slavia Sofia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Slavia Sofia at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 43% of the ball to Slavia Sofia's 57%, shots finished 13-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Slavia Sofia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Spartak Varna and 3.00 for Slavia Sofia.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia?

Spartak Varna 1-1 Slavia Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Slavia Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 27%, draw 23%, Slavia Sofia 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Slavia Sofia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Slavia Sofia) ✓ BTTS Yes
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