Arda Kardzhali 0-2 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.53
No
51%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
60%
+1.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
36%
+13.4pp
51%
BTTS No
64%
-13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 18%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
2.07/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.89
+20% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2025 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 3-1 HT 1-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
08.11.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-0 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
10.03.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-2 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
30.06.2018 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-1 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
0-2
AWAY Botev Vratsa
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Vratsa beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arda Kardzhali at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 59% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 41%, shots finished 21-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 1.25 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa?

Arda Kardzhali 0-2 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 61%, draw 23%, Botev Vratsa 16%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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