Nice 1-1 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Sep 2025

Nice
1-1 HT 1-0
Paris FC
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Nice vs Paris FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.77
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
14%
4.94
X/2
13%
7.29
X/X
9%
5.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
23.0
2/2
9%
5.06
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nice v Paris FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +50% / +50%
1.57/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/2.57
-2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +37%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
18.7 Crosses 8.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Nice 1-1 Paris FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
1-1
AWAY Paris FC
0.96 xG 1.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 437
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nice vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice and Paris FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nice at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nice had 44% of the ball to Paris FC's 56%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.96 to 1.83.

What was the final score of Nice vs Paris FC?

Nice 1-1 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Nice 51%, draw 22%, Paris FC 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nice), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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