Lille 0-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Sep 2025

Lille
0-1 HT 0-1
Lyon
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Lille vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.83
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.03
6+ Goals
9%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.15
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.05
X/1
9%
5.41
X/2
16%
6.64
X/X
10%
4.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.3
2/2
12%
4.34
2/X
6%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.0pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.35/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.73
+14% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 83%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
12.2 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lille vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lyon
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.47 xG 1.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
413 Passes 405
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2025 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
01.11.2024 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
06.05.2024 Lille Lille 3-4 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.02.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FRK
26.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
10.03.2023 Lille Lille 3-3 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lille 0-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
0-1
AWAY Lyon
1.47 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
363 Passes 300
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lille vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon edged past Lille 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lille had 54% of the ball to Lyon's 46%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.47 to 0.51 — on chances, Lille could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lille and 2.00 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Lille vs Lyon?

Lille 0-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lille 40%, draw 26%, Lyon 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
28 Sep 2025
16:00 Nice vs Paris FC Analysis →
18:15 Metz vs Le Havre Analysis →
18:15 Angers vs Brest Analysis →
21:45 Rennes vs Lens Analysis →