Lyon 2-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Apr 2025

Lyon
2-1 HT 1-1
Lille
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒22:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.65
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 24% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.2
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
11%
12.5
X/1
9%
5.39
X/2
14%
6.66
X/X
8%
4.91
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
14%
4.46
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.62/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.13
+46% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
16.6 Crosses 14.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lyon vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lille
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.60 xG 1.59
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
360 Passes 425
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.11.2024 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
06.05.2024 Lille Lille 3-4 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.02.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FRK
26.11.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
10.03.2023 Lille Lille 3-3 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
08.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-2 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FRK

Lyon 2-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
2-1
AWAY Lille
1.85 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
540 Passes 403
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Lille 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lyon had 56% of the ball to Lille's 44%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.85 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lyon and 2.00 for Lille.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Lille?

Lyon 2-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lyon 38%, draw 27%, Lille 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ BTTS Yes
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