Brest 2-1 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Apr 2025

Brest
2-1 HT 1-0
Monaco
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Brest vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
44%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.9
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
8.73
X/2
14%
4.73
X/X
9%
5.83
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.37
2/X
10%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.9 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
44%
Away Win
51%
-7.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.4pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brest v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 56%
+10% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.27/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.05
+26% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
20.6 Crosses 17.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Brest vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Monaco
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.03 xG 1.74
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
342 Passes 349
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2024 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
21.04.2024 Brest Brest 0-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
05.11.2023 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
19.02.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
01.01.2023 Monaco Monaco 1-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
14.05.2022 Monaco Monaco 4-2 HT 1-2 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 2-1 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
2-1
AWAY Monaco
1.00 xG 1.71
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
256 Passes 413
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brest vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest nicked a narrow win over Monaco 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Brest had 41% of the ball to Monaco's 59%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.00 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Monaco.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brest and 2.33 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Brest vs Monaco?

Brest 2-1 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Brest 30%, draw 27%, Monaco 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monaco) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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