Hwaseong 1-1 Busan I Park — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Challenge, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hwaseong EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Busan I Park EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
0.83/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.90
-25% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +13%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
229 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
12.2 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hwaseong
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Busan I Park
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
230 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2025 Hwaseong Hwaseong 1-0 HT 0-0 Busan I Park Busan I Park GKOR2
27.04.2025 Busan I Park Busan I Park 3-2 HT 2-2 Hwaseong Hwaseong GKOR2
01.07.2020 Busan I Park Busan I Park 4-0 HT 3-0 Hwaseong Hwaseong GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hwaseong
1-1
AWAY Busan I Park
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
249 Passes 410
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hwaseong vs Busan I Park
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hwaseong and Busan I Park couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Busan I Park at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hwaseong had 38% of the ball to Busan I Park's 62%, shots finished 6-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Busan I Park led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hwaseong and 2.33 for Busan I Park.

What was the final score of Hwaseong vs Busan I Park?

Hwaseong 1-1 Busan I Park in the South Kore - K League Challenge on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hwaseong vs Busan I Park?

Before kick-off our model rated an Busan I Park win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hwaseong 30%, draw 25%, Busan I Park 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Busan I Park), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Busan I Park) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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