Alianza Petrolera 3-1 Llaneros — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Llaneros EU Bookmakers 24%
+7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.40/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.11
+3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +63%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
21.3 Crosses 14.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Llaneros
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.13 xG 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
281 Passes 288
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
12.04.2025 Llaneros Llaneros 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
3-1
AWAY Llaneros
2.02 xG 1.32
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 8
470 Passes 169
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera got the better of Llaneros 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza Petrolera as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 68% of the ball to Llaneros's 32%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.02 to 1.32.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros?

Alianza Petrolera 3-1 Llaneros in the Colombia - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 46%, draw 29%, Llaneros 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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