Atletico Nacional 2-0 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-2.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.54/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.27
+15% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +40%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
18.9 Crosses 12.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 0.75
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
300 Passes 240
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
06.06.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
14.04.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
30.11.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.07.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
2-0
AWAY Millonarios
1.70 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
344 Passes 243
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional saw off Millonarios 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 58% of the ball to Millonarios's 42%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.70 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.83 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Atletico Nacional 2-0 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 60%, draw 23%, Millonarios 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
28 Sep 2025
00:10 Alianza Petrolera vs Llaneros Analysis →
02:20 Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Analysis →
22:00 America de Cali vs Envigado Analysis →