Atletico Nacional 1-1 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.4pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.13/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.22
+25% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
16.0 Crosses 13.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 0.40
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
259 Passes 274
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
30.11.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.07.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
07.12.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
24.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLK
16.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Millonarios
1.32 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
269 Passes 241
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 54% of the ball to Millonarios's 46%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.32 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 43%, draw 31%, Millonarios 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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