Matagalpa 1-4 Rancho Santana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
28%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.7pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Rancho Santana EU Bookmakers 18%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.57/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.66
-21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Rancho Santana
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
23.07.2025 Rancho Santana Rancho Santana 1-2 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
27.02.2025 Matagalpa Matagalpa 2-1 HT 1-0 Rancho Santana Rancho Santana NİK
04.11.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-0 HT 0-0 Rancho Santana Rancho Santana NİK
25.08.2024 Rancho Santana Rancho Santana 1-0 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rancho Santana cruised past Matagalpa 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Matagalpa at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matagalpa had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Matagalpa and 0.75 for Rancho Santana.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?

Matagalpa 1-4 Rancho Santana in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matagalpa win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 63%, draw 21%, Rancho Santana 16%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matagalpa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matagalpa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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