Universitario 3-2 Cusco FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.33
No
53%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
27%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
71%
-6.1pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.4pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
39%
+8.2pp
53%
BTTS No
61%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitario EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +19%
1.83/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.90
+18% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
22.9 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Universitario
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cusco FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 0.77
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
303 Passes 336
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2025 Cusco FC Cusco FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Universitario Universitario PER
21.08.2024 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Universitario Universitario PER
13.03.2024 Universitario Universitario 1-0 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
22.10.2023 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Universitario Universitario PER
03.06.2023 Universitario Universitario 1-0 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
23.10.2021 Universitario Universitario 2-1 HT 0-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitario
3-2
AWAY Cusco FC
2.84 xG 1.09
42% Ball Possession 58%
23 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
265 Passes 411
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Universitario vs Cusco FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario nicked a narrow win over Cusco FC 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Universitario as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Universitario had 42% of the ball to Cusco FC's 58%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.84 to 1.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Universitario's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitario had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Universitario and 0.83 for Cusco FC.

What was the final score of Universitario vs Cusco FC?

Universitario 3-2 Cusco FC in the Peru - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitario vs Cusco FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Universitario 65%, draw 20%, Cusco FC 15%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitario) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universitario) ✗ BTTS No
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