Serik Spor 1-1 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

Serik Spor
1-1 HT 1-0
Erzurumspor FK
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2025/2026

Serik Spor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
52%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.52
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
4.78
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 39% vs market 33.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.03
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
8%
7.1
X/2
17%
4.25
X/X
13%
4.2
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.78
2/X
8%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
26%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
52%
Away Win
47%
+4.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Serik Spor v Erzurumspor FK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Serik Spor EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 51%
+61% / +61% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.22/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.17
-18% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +42%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
11.0 Crosses 19.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Serik Spor 1-1 Erzurumspor FK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Serik Spor
1-1
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.83 xG 0.63
23% Ball Possession 77%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
110 Passes 542
60% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Serik Spor vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Serik Spor and Erzurumspor FK couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Erzurumspor FK at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Serik Spor had 23% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 77%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.83 to 0.63.

What was the final score of Serik Spor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Serik Spor 1-1 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Serik Spor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Serik Spor 21%, draw 27%, Erzurumspor FK 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
28 Sep 2025
16:00 Manisa FK vs Bodrum FK Analysis →
16:00 İstanbulspor vs Boluspor Analysis →
19:00 Hatayspor vs Bandırmaspor Analysis →