Almanya (K) 1-2 Avustralya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 28 Oct 2024

Almanya (K)
1-2 HT 1-1
Avustralya (K)
📅28/10/2024 · 🕒20:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Almanya (K) vs Avustralya (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
69%
-3.9pp
17%
Draw
19%
-1.2pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almanya (K) v Avustralya (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almanya (K) EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Avustralya (K) EU Bookmakers 16%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
3.01/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/2.60
+83% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -57%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
39.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.6
28.7 Crosses 6.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Almanya (K) vs Avustralya (K) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almanya (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Avustralya (K)
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.22 xG 0.37
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
330 Passes 362
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.07.2024 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 3-0 HT 1-0 Avustralya (K) Avustralya (K) OLY

Almanya (K) 1-2 Avustralya (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almanya (K)
1-2
AWAY Avustralya (K)
2.92 xG 0.73
74% Ball Possession 26%
20 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
502 Passes 132
85% Pass Accuracy 62%
39 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almanya (K) vs Avustralya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avustralya (K) squeezed past Almanya (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Almanya (K) at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Almanya (K) had 74% of the ball to Avustralya (K)'s 26%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.92 to 0.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Almanya (K).

What was the final score of Almanya (K) vs Avustralya (K)?

Almanya (K) 1-2 Avustralya (K) in the Friendlies on 28/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almanya (K) vs Avustralya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almanya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Almanya (K) 65%, draw 17%, Avustralya (K) 18%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Almanya (K)), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almanya (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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