FC Cincinnati 1-0 Columbus Crew — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Oct 2025

📅28/10/2025 · 🕒01:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
28%
2.7
6+ Goals
12%
6.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.46
1/2
5%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
16%
5.99
X/2
10%
6.12
X/X
10%
5.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
23.55
2/2
17%
3.59
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.5pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.27/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.41
-4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
14.3 Crosses 13.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Columbus Crew
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.74 xG 1.95
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
334 Passes 491
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-4 HT 2-2 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
18.05.2025 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
15.09.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
12.05.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
03.12.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 2-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
21.08.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
1-0
AWAY Columbus Crew
1.25 xG 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
408 Passes 417
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Columbus Crew 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 50% of the ball to Columbus Crew's 50%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.25 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.00 for Columbus Crew.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

FC Cincinnati 1-0 Columbus Crew in the USA - Major League on 28/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 43%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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